by Thinus Ferreira
Like a once deep lake slowly getting drained while the entire ecosystem which depended on it becomes unstable, shrinks and disappears, the South African public broadcaster's constantly eroding TV ratings and ongoing audience loss is a massive cause for concern for the entire local television and advertising industry and a growing existential crisis for the troubled SABC which seems unable to stop the viewership bleed.
An analysis of SABC TV ratings over the past year shows how the South African public broadcaster continues to lose millions of viewers, with its SABC1, SABC2 and SABC3 TV channels experiencing ongoing and hugely troubling linear TV ratings losses.
The disappearing SABC TV audiences have a massive negative impact on the broadcaster's income, with the SABC forced to charge less and less in advertising rates for TV commercials when fewer eyeballs are watching.
While the troubled SABC3 has been in a ratings black hole for more than the past decade, the disturbing South African TV ratings picture reveals that even SABC2 now looks like the SABC3 of five years ago.
Back in September 2017, SABC3 still managed 1.87 million viewers for its most-watched content for the month, and 430 621 viewers for its 20th highest-rated show.
Cue SABC2's ratings in June 2022 with 1.88 million viewers at most and 399 844 for its 20th highest-rated show and it's evident how SABC2's ratings picture is now like SABC3 when that sister channel was already in big trouble.
Meanwhile, SABC3 itself looks to be virtually on life-support now as a TV channel, with just over 700 000 viewers nationally at most in June.
TVwithThinus looked at the ratings of the past year - from June 2021 to June 2022 - for the SABC's three big terrestrial TV channels. For the exercise, the TV rating of the highest-rated programming on each channel, as well as the 20th highest-rated show on each channel were taken over the past 12 months.
Take a look at the steady and shocking decline of the SABC's TV viewership and ratings over just the past year.
SABC1 top-rated show
June 2021: 8 024 208
July 2021: 7 776 154
August 2021: 7 648 487
September 2021: 6 879 581
October 2021: 7 099 635
November 2021: 6 990 052
December 2021: 6 855 580
January 2022: 6 995 444
February 2022: 6 677 494
March 2022: 7 020 908
April 2022: 6 471 686
May 2022: 5 783 736
June 2022: 6 103 846
SABC1 20th rated show:
June 2021: 2 118 704
July 2021: 2 357 043
August 2021: 2 262 219
September 2021: 1 937 322
October 2021: 1 745 856
November 2021: 1 558 864
December 2021: 1 465 153
January 2022: 1 419 480
February 2022: 1 417 425
March 2022: 1 560 967
April 2022: 1 547 113
May 2022: 1 558 562
June 2022: 1 653 227
SABC2 top-rated show:
June 2021: 4 734 276
July 2021: 5 840 203
August 2021: 4 166 031
September 2021: 3 696 060
October 2021: 3 643 585
November 2021: 3 553 242
December 2021: 3 672 139
January 2022: 3 952 923
February 2022: 3 300 031
March 2022: 3 309 806
April 2022: 3 285 619
May 2022: 2 408 898
June 2022: 1 885 401
SABC2 20th rated show:
June 2021: 562 390
July 2021: 716 496
August 2021: 533 571
September 2021: 511 761
October 2021: 437 448
November 2021: 561 974
December 2021: 495 536
January 2022: 491 980
February 2022: 440 633
March 2022: 379 094
April 2022: 456 635
May 2022: 400 620
June 2022: 399 844
SABC3 top-rated show:
June 2021: 731 009
July 2021: 769 858
August 2021: 733 963
September 2021: 1 031 635
October 2021: 968 107
November 2021: 597 534
December 2021: 491 171
January 2022: 652 702
February 2022: 490 709
March 2022: 576 562
April 2022: 793 301
May 2022: 518 197
June 2022: 596 374
SABC3 20th rated show:
June 2021: 277 417
July 2021: 327 316
August 2021: 292 736
September 2021: 291 793
October 2021: 267 159
November 2021: 251 032
December 2021: 245 209
January 2022: 312 382
February 2022: 229 714
March 2022: 317 634
April 2022: 314 518
May 2022: 249 813
June 2022: 229 175
About the slide in the SABC ratings, Chris Botha, Park Advertising group managing director, tells TVwithThinus that falling linear TV ratings is not unique to the South African public broadcaster, but that what's happening with TV audiences is worse in South Africa.
"Firstly,
let's be clear: Linear television ratings across the world are dropping. So it's
not an 'SABC thing' or even a 'South African thing' – it is a problem the world
over. Now in South Africa, the picture is worse than the rest of the world for a number
of reasons."
"It's not just one thing – it is actually a confluence of
circumstances. Firstly, this is South Africa's worst ever year for Eskom load shedding. The numbers clearly show that load shedding has an enormous impact on
TV viewership."
"Secondly, there is the government rollout of the DTT project.
As transmitters are being switched off in certain provinces we have noted that
this has resulted in drops in audience."
"Thirdly, the competition is only
increasing. The amount of streaming providers popping up is scary. Netflix,
Disney+, TelkomOne, BritBox, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, Google Play and VIU, just
to name a few, are all eating away at what used to be a strong and healthy
audience," Chris Botha says.
"Then there are also issues with the TAMS (Television Audience Measurement Survey) panel balance that is being addressed
at the moment."
Competition will only increase
Chris Botha says South Africa's linear TV audience erosion is a big concern for the entire industry.
"The Advertising Media Forum (AMF) has engaged with the BRCSA (Broadcast Research Council of South Africa) to address the drop in TV ratings - not only for the
SABC but for TV broadcasts as a whole," he says.
"Our clients are investing millions of
rands to reach consumers, and when the investment delivers a subpar return, everyone gets twitchy."
"As an industry we do well when the SABC does well. They
remain South Africa's biggest media owner, so we are actively working with them
as best we can to try and mitigate the circumstances."
"However, things like load shedding is completely and entirely out of our control, so we have to make due
with what we have."
Chris Botha says "the world of broadcast television is rapidly changing".
"The consumer will never have
fewer choices than what they have right now. The competition is only
increasing. Loadshedding might go away. DTT will eventually settle audiences
down. The TAMS panel will be balanced. But competition is here to stay."
"The
SABC and other terrestrial broadcasters need to make a plan to compete with the
OTT suppliers like Netflix, MultiChoice's Showmax and Amazon Prime Video - otherwise the slide in audience
and revenue will only continue."
Trying to stem losses
Since early July, TVwithThinus asked the SABC repeatedly for comment on various questions pertaining to the SABC's falling TV ratings for SABC1, SABC2 and SABC3.
The SABC was asked whether its audience erosion is a concern, what the broadcaster is making about Eskom's electricity blackouts, e.tv's ratings rise since viewers without analogue access are sitting over e.tv which hasn't switched off its analogue signals, what the SABC's plan and strategy is for ratings stabilisation and what the impact of payback and make-good ads are when the SABC is unable to deliver promised ratings during which ad spots were sold.
Ndindi Cola, SABC spokesperson, declined to answer any of the specific questions and told TVwithThinus in a general statement that "The SABC has a mitigation plan in place to improve its
audience and market share, however the internal strategies cannot be shared in
the public domain, but the public will see the results in the future industry
ratings".
