by Thinus Ferreira
South Africa's TV ratings are set to tank.
That's the stark warning from the custodian body of South Africa's TAMS TV ratings system, as well as e.tv, raising red flags over the government's suddenly rushed plan to complete its long-delayed digital TV migration plan to switch off all analogue signal transmitters by February 2022.
This suddenly rushed plan will leave millions of TV households without any television access, will severely damage the entire South African TV ecosystem, advertisers, cause TV ratings to crater while it leaves millions of viewers without access to television news content.
On Tuesday, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, South Africa's latest minister of communications and digital technologies, announced the latest amended rushed plan to flip the kill switch on all remaining analogue signal transmitters in the country's 9 provinces within the next 3 months.
eMedia Holdings that says the plan is not practical and extremely damaging, has now filed papers in the High Court to attempt to stop Khumbudzo Ntshavheni's latest digital terrestrial television (DTT) plan for a 31 January 2022 hard switch-off of analogue signals.
Although the South African government more than a decade ago promised that analogue TV signals in South Africa won't be switched off before all TV households haven't been switched over to digital terrestrial television (DTT), the government will now take television reception away from millions of TV households in South Africa.
These viewers will no longer be able to watch or listen to any content on any SABC TV channels or radio stations, e.tv, or community TV stations in the country as they lose analogue TV signals but don't yet have the means of receiving digital TV signals.
These millions of TV households are part of South Africa's TV ratings system that TV channels use to set advertising rates according to TAMS viewership figures. The result is that these TV households will disappear in large swathes when analogue signals are turned off.
Millions of South African TV households still watch television using analogue TV signals and haven't bought digitally-capable TV sets, or are poor households that haven't received the free government-subsidised set-top box (STV) for DTT because of corruption and incompetence, industry-in-fighting and ongoing delays in the country's digital migration process that had severely hampered and delayed the process for a decade and a half.
Over the past decade, TVwithThinus had reported numerous times - as lately as March this year - about the looming danger that analogue transmitters in South Africa will be switched off before all TV households have been migrated that will inflict massive damage on free-to-air broadcasters who depend on ratings and advertising revenue, advertisers, as well as the TV ratings system.
Analogue signal hard kill: Millions of viewers left in the dark
Khalik Sherrif, Media Holdings CEO, in an interview on eNCA (DStv 403), said Media and e.tv don't agree with the suddenly changed and rushed plan to switch off all analogue TV signals by the end of March 2022 "because we don't believe it's achievable at all".
"Analogue switch-off must happen," he said, "but in the way it's being rushed now, it is absolutely unachievable to do this by January 2022."
He said there's an STB shortage with decoders that are not available, there's a microchip shortage around the world in all industries depending on chipsets, and that there are big questions around the logistics on installations.
"How is it going to be done? 5.6 million TV households in this country rely on analogue transmission," Khalik Sherrif said. "You need to do 500 000 boxes a month to meet the January deadline. It's not going to happen. Absolutely not." He said that eMedia's plan and suggested for the government's amended DTT plan has not been heard.
"This is an absolute problem for the country. There are people who are going to be left in the dark. There's going to be no television available to many millions of households and that's the problem."
He said that "more than 50% of people in this country watching television are watching it through analogue.
SA's TV ratings: Warning of severe impact
Gary Whitaker, Broadcast Research Council of South Africa (BRCSA) CEO, warned that South Africa's TV population will decline and that the country's TV ratings will tank if analogue signals are switched off before all viewers have migrated, with massive implications for the TV industry and advertisers.
South Africa's TV universe is roughly 15.9 million TV households.
The passive TV households forming part of the TAMS panel are just over 3000 TV households that represent the almost 16 million TV households in the country.
TAMS also measures analogue TV viewing, with 28% of the households in the TAMS panel who are analogue viewers and who represent 5.6 million TV households.
"TAMS reflects what is actually happening in the market. If analogue signals go off, anyone in our panel that loses their signal, we don't throw them out of our panel - they stay on - and they get measured as nil viewing. Zero viewing. Their viewership cannot be traded as a currency. The broadcasters cannot make money."
Gary Whitaker said that "the deadline as it stands now - we know that's there's going to be a severe impact on free-to-air channels".
He said that if there is a hard switch-off of analogue transmitters in South Africa wiping away millions of viewers "we have to abide by what's happening in the market and we will be agile as far as we can. If there is a switch-off by March 2022 that's when we will enact our plan to establish a new TV universe that will take into consideration fewer TV viewers. The TV population will decline."
DTT: Free-to-air broadcasting in jeopardy
Khalik Sherrif said that the government's plan for a sudden hard switch-off of analogue signals within months will have a massive negative impact on free-to-air broadcasters like community TV stations, the SABC, e.tv and others.
"Free-to-air broadcasters make their money from advertising. Now you switch off everybody on a date. Hard switch-off. Viewers won't be measured. Advertisers will be disappointed. Marketers will pull away. Free-to-air broadcasting in the country stands in jeopardy because we lose our businesses," Khalik Sherrif said.
He said there must be a planned approach with Media suggesting a timeframe of 15 to 18 months - not 5 months.
Khalik Sheriff said that it's not just eMedia that will be impacted but all of free-to-air broadcasting in South Africa. "What is the recourse? We have to go to the court. There's no other way. We're definitely not partnering with the department of communications on this matter".
In the court affidavit eMedia filed in court, Antonio Lee, eMedia COO, states that "very recent events have raised alarm bells regarding the process that the minister and Icasa intend to follow to achieve analogue switch-off".
"The so-called 'fast-tracking of digital migration at a 'rapid speed' - without the preconditions for a lawful digital migration process having been achieved - fundamentally threatens e.tv's ability to continue to reach the majority of its audience".
"It also threatens the rights of the public to have access to free-to-air television from either the SABC or e.tv - both of which use analogue spectrum for the purposes of broadcasting their programmes."
"Around 23.5 million viewers in South Africa watch e.tv on average each month. This equates to approximately 6.7 million households in which e.tv is viewed."
"Given than 58% of these households are dependent on the analogue broadcasting of e.tv's news and programming, an analogue switch-off would deny some 13.6 million viewers in South Africa the opportunity to view the broadcasting of the only source of free-to-air independent television news and information programming."
"Many of these viewers are among those who do not have sufficient economic resources to afford digital subscription platforms such as DStv, and who cannot afford to purchase sufficient data to stream news and programming via mobile networks."
"To comply with constitutional obligations and public promises, before digital migration can be completed, the government must ensure that these 13.6 million viewers are provided with the necessary equipment, be it set-top boxes and/or reception devices, to continue to receive these broadcasts."
"e.tv has calculated that an additional 3.9 million set-top boxes are still to be provided to its viewers to achieve this purpose."
