Disney+ will overtake Netflix by 2025 as the world's big winner in the video streaming wars.

by Thinus Ferreira

It's Netflix and chill now but by 2025 The Walt Disney Company's video streaming service Disney+, that will launch sometime from June 2022 in South Africa, will overtake Netflix as the world's big winner in the streaming wars.

The research firm Digital TV Research has published a new market intelligence report, predicting that Disney+ will dethrone Netflix within less than 4 years.

"Global subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) subscriptions will increase by 491 million between 2021 and 2026 to reach 1.64 billion," Digital TV Research now predicts.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, says "China and the United States had a similar number of subscriptions by end-2020. Due to government pressure, China's growth is decelerating, with 354 million subscriptions expected by 2026. The United States will continue to grow, with 450 million subscriptions expected by 2026." 

"China and the United States will together account for 49% of the global total by 2026, down from 56% in 2021."

"Three platforms will control nearly half the world's SVOD subscriptions by 2026. Disney+ will be the biggest winner, overtaking Netflix in 2025," the latest projections show.

"Disney+ will add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to bring its total to 284 million. About 121 million of Disney+ subscribers (43% of its total) in 2026 will be in the 13 Asian countries under the Hotstar brand."

Digital TV Research now estimates that Netflix will add 53 million subscribers to reach 271 million subscribers by 2026.

Amazon Prime Video is expected to reach 243.4 million subscribers, with Apple TV+ carving out 35.6 million global users four years from now.

In September the research company in its latest video streaming predictions for Africa specifically, noted that although Disney+ is only launching around June 2022 and just in South Africa, that it's subscriber base will quickly grow to 2.17 million subscribers by 2026. 

MultiChoice's Showmax that is currently in second place, will fall to third place and is predicted to increase its base from an estimated 861 000 subscribers by the end of 2021 to 2.12 million by 2026.

Amazon Prime Video will be in fourth place by 2026 and will grow from 575 000 subscribers at the end of 2021 to 1.93 million subscribers in sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile Apple TV+ is projected to increase its subscriber base in Africa from 121 000 to 304 000 subscribers.

ALSO READ: Netflix, Disney+ and MultiChoice's Showmax will be Africa's 3 biggest video streamers 5 years from now by 2026 with South Africa and Nigeria contributing the bulk of subscribers.

Netflix, Disney+ and MultiChoice's Showmax will be Africa's 3 biggest video streamers 5 years from now by 2026 with South Africa and Nigeria contributing the bulk of subscribers.

by Thinus Ferreira

Just 5 years from now the latest estimates predict that there will be 15.06 million video streaming subscribers in Africa by 2026 - led by South Africa and Nigeria - with Netflix, Disney+ and Showmax that will rank as the top 3 streamer services.

New research from the business intelligence company Digital TV Research projects that video streaming subscribers in Africa will almost triple with surging growth as consumers sign up for over-the-top (OTT) video services in conjunction to traditional direct-to-home (DTH) satellite pay-TV services, or abandon satellite TV in favour of streaming.

The current 5.11 million video streaming users making use of subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services in Africa by the end of 2021 is set to increase threefold in just five years to an estimated 15.06 million users by 2026, according to Digital TV Research.

South Africa and Nigeria are leading the way in video streaming adoption in sub-Saharan Africa, and will each account for a whopping 2.3 million of these additional 10 million new subscribers by 2026. These will be the only two African countries that each have more than one million video streaming subscribers.

Users in South Africa already have a wide - and growing - choice of global and localised SVOD services, ranging from Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+ and MultiChoice's Showmax, to VIU, Vodacom Video Play, eVOD, Acorn TV, BritBox SA and others.

Disney is set to launch its Disney+ in mid-2022 in South Africa, with WarnerMedia's HBO Max, Paramount+ from ViacomCBS and NBCUniversal's Peacock, Discovery+ that have not yet announced any launch dates.

In Africa projections indicate that Netflix will dominate as the number one video streamer in terms of subscribers, followed by Disney+ and then Showmax that is bundled by MultiChoice.

According to the research, Netflix alone will account for more than half of all video streaming subscriptions by the end of 2021 but this 51% share or 2.61 million subscribers by the end of 2021 will diminish to a share of 39% and 5.84 million subscribers by 2026.

Although Disney+ is only launching around June 2022 and just in South Africa, Digital TV Research predicts that its subscriber base will quickly grow to 2.17 million subscribers by 2026. 

MultiChoice's Showmax that is currently in second place, will fall to third place and is predicted to increase its base from an estimated 861 000 subscribers by the end of 2021 to 2.12 million by 2026.

Amazon Prime Video will be in fourth place by 2026 and will grow from 575 000 subscribers at the end of 2021 to 1.93 million subscribers in sub-Saharan Africa. Apple TV+ is projected to increase its subscriber base in Africa from 121 000 to 304 000 subscribers.

"The selective launch plans from some global platforms work in favour of regional players such as Showmax and MyCanal," says Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research.