by Thinus Ferreira
Canal+'s MultiChoice is ensnared in a "Black Swan" moment and is staring a TV-type of Y2K destruction in the face due to the threatening, massive loss of pay-TV content at midnight tonight when Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) will pull its 12 TV channels from DStv when its channel carriage contract runs out.
Canal+ and MultiChoice will not only lose
these 12 TV channels without a new deal,
but also all of WBD's content like HBO from M-Net (DStv 101) and the M-Net Movies channels on DStv, as well as everything supplied by all of Warner's TV studios and film studios to M-Net, but also to the struggling Showmax streamer run by MultiChoice and Comcast's NBCUNiversal.
Twenty-five years after the so-called Y2K bug that threatened to shut down computers on New Year's Eve before the arrival of the year 2000, the clock is ticking down to midnight tonight for an utterly massive and unthinkable loss of content from DStv in terms of TV channels, shows and movies.
MultiChoice's new French Canal+ bosses, who have been closing the money taps for the past few months since October, have so far failed to sign a new channel carriage agreement with WBD, which expires at the end of 2025.
Without a new multi-year channels carriage agreement, TV channels from CNN International, Discovery Channel, Cartoon Network, Food Network, TLC, HGTV, TNT and several more will all vanish from DStv on 1 January 2026.
An M-Net insider told me that the threat represents a "true extinction-level event" for legacy M-Net's value proposition for DStv subscribers.
Ironically, the possible destruction of M-Net's premium content pipeline from America, through Warner, comes on the eve of M-Net's 40th anniversary year in 2026, with M-Net became synonymous with HBO as the home of premium shows that M-Net acquired exclusively for DStv subscribers in South Africa and across sub-Saharan Africa.
Negotiations between Canal+ and Warner Bros. Discovery continued this week.
According to several sources, Maxime Saada, Canal+ CEO in Paris, as well as David Mignot, the recently installed new Canal+ Africa boss in Johannesburg, are adamant that the financial exploitation by third-party content providers like WBD must end.
They apparently want to send a "strong and clear signal" that MultiChoice under Canal+ control and ownership "will no longer simply pay content providers their asking price".
One source tells me it's a "cost-cutting principle" and to "definitively indicate that MultiChoice's days as simply a price taker are over under Canal+" to all other entertainment and sports content distributors whose international contracts will also be expiring and coming up for renewal talks.
Warner Bros. Discovery on the other hand, is adamant to get paid what Warner knows its TV channels and content are worth, including its extremely desirable HBO series, as well as its studios' overall output volume.
Insiders say the fear is that Warner Bros. Discovery's channels going dark, together with the ripping away of HBO content on M-Net, will lead to further millions of DStv subscribers cancelling their DStv subscriptions in early 2026 as they jump to streamers like Netflix and Disney+.
MultiChoice has already lost a shocking 2.8 million DStv subscribers since April 2023.
MultiChoice said that it continues to negotiate with WBD.
WBD told TVwithThinus that it "remains fully committed to finding a resolution and keeping our channels available for our audience".
"We are in regular contact with Canal+/MultiChoice and we remain hopeful that a constructive path forward can be agreed that benefits all parties, especially our viewers."
According to insiders, both sides are posturing and behaving like cowboys in a Hollywood movie.
"Canal+ and Warner are both hard-knuckled gunslingers because they can be. Neither side is blinking. They've been negotiating for months and neither one is willing to budge. Canal+ and Warner, both global players, are more than willing to pull the trigger and leave DStv subscribers with black screens where CNN, Cartoon Network, Discovery and all the rest are - even if it leads to immense reputational and financial pain for both."
The loss of WBD's TV portfolio alone will inflict immense damage on DStv.
Just Cartoon Network alone has a 49% audience share of all children's viewing. All of the other DStv channels combined represent the other half.
WBD confirmed this and said Cartoon Network has maintained its leadership position since 2006 as DStv's biggest kids TV channel.
Cartoonito, WBD's other children's channel that will also be ripped away at midnight from DStv, is, according to WB,D "the number one kids' channel on the DStv Family package".
Meanwhile, TNT holds the number one position as the most popular international movie channel on DStv, while TLC is hugely popular as a lifestyle TV channel.
MultiChoice says it's working on "alternative" channels and content plans to replace Warner's content if no deal is reached by the end of today, but sources explain that there exists no like-for-like equivalent replacement content for the Warner offering anywhere else in the world for Dstv to acquire and package.
Prof Lizette Rabe, media expert and emeritus professor at the University of Stellenbosch, told TVwithThinus that entertainment content can still be negotiated, but that the reduction of information and the news offering, especially during a time where democracies are under pressure is a serious matter.
"MultiChoice had already started scaling back channels, which represents a loss for viewers looking for a wider perspective," she said.
"BVN, the Dutch service, and Deutsche Welle, for example, simply disappeared quietly after on-screen messages of 'this service will no longer be available a month from now' - without any explanation to consumers."
"The fact that MultiChoice and Canal+ have to renegotiate for a new contract - of which the clock is ticking down to 31 December - in addition to Warner Bros. Discovery fielding buyers in the United States - has set the stage for a perfect storm for the South African company that has basically always had a monopoly over pay-TV information and entertainment."
"And as a consumer, I have to add - one apparently not concerned about its subscribers and not communicating truly and honestly. The result is that DStv is bleeding subscriptions."
"Now the company is in a position where possibly even more people are going to decide whether the R1000 plus per month for the DStv premium package are worth it, for what they're getting in return. It is indeed an unexpected 'Black Swan' moment for MultiChoice/Canal+," she explained.
